180 degrees opposite of beef, pork has been the stable protein of 2025. Follow me as I explain my thoughts.

• Cattle slaughter(minus the last 3 weeks) has been down due to a combination of fewer cattle and packers trying to manage their margins

• Hog slaughter, as shown on Kim's chart above, has been very stable all year and running right near the annual average.

• If you look at pork product prices, while they have been very seasonally normal, they've also ran a touch higher than the 5 year average. The 3 main categories shown on the chart above have held together really well considering most weeks this year we were killing more hogs than expected. The other primal products that I'm not showing look very similar on their charts.

• Beef, obviously went to all time new highs this summer and have since made a seasonal correction lower this fall and early winter. That took place with lower slaughter rates, meaning fewer of those primals were available helping to push those prices to those levels.

And last but not least, we have to consider volumes of pork and beef.

• Everytime I start getting nervous that pork might start backing up, or sales start dropping, exports have picked up the slack and cleaned us up.

• Beef volumes on the other hand, at different times have struggled. Moving the lower volumes we were making shoulding be an issue when slaughter is low. Exports, as expected have stuggled, and will likely continue struggling unless boxes stay down here near $350.

At the end of the day, they are two different products fighting for their share of the consumers' dollars. To me, strong demand looks like high slaughter/high production, coupled with strong volumes being sold, all happening with stable/seasonal prices. Pork has had that going on nearly all year and beef has not. I'm excited for pork producers, as that "V bottom" on the chart materialized and exports remain strong. At this time, I'm not seeing a reason to put those short futures positions back on. And given we'll be coming into our seasonal rally period with weeks of negative basis against the board, LRP could become the better tool, and maybe adding a short put $10 below it.

-Fat cattle kill at 123,000 vs 121,000 a week ago and 125,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 1.25 to $358.11 and select down 1.42 to $343.46 for a spread of 14.65 on 151 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 12/9 came in at $344.03

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $221.06

-Hog kill at 494,000 vs 490,000 a week ago and 473,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported up 1.57 at $98.84 on 285 loads

-CME lean hog index on 12/09 reported at 82.16

-CME pork cutout index on 12/10 reported at 95.85

-LRP’s ending 12/11 settled at approximately $82.57

• In the next few weeks we will know the cycle length of this year’s LRC

• We are monitoring for influences from the fringe pieces of the atmospheric jigsaw

• The trends that have developed in recent weeks are likely to continue

Take a look at the temperature anomalies across the United States through yesterday. Even with the recent cold blasts and areas of snow, the only regions running cooler than average during the first 65 days of this year’s LRC are confined to the far eastern U.S.

That’s a very telling signal.

Despite the headlines and short-lived cold shots, much of the country has averaged near or above normal temperatures so far. 

What Is Going On?

The LRC is the centerpiece of the atmospheric jigsaw, and this year a very unique pattern has taken shape. Surrounding that centerpiece are the fringe influences—the corner and edge pieces—including the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Right now, the AO has shifted into positive index territory, and that matters. A positive AO typically favors a stronger polar vortex, which in turn keeps the coldest air bottled up farther north. That aligns perfectly with what we’ve been observing: storm systems shifting northward and gradually weakening after brief cold intrusions.

• The AO & NAO are important indexes to track as they showcase potential cold and warm periods and how strong storms may be.

• When these indexes dip deep negative below -3 to -4, there is a much better chance that Arctic air will blast south. This energizes the jet stream and may increase the strength of storm systems.

• When these indexes rise into the positive territory, especially above +3 to +4, Arctic air is most likely to be held far to the north and storm systems end up weaker, and this happened in the first cycle of this year’s LRC.

• We are monitoring this influence on the overall weather pattern closely. The positive shift in the past week is likely influencing the Arctic air right now.

With that in mind, take another look at Tuesday’s surface forecast map below. The pattern supports continued storm tracks favoring the northern tier, followed by another warm-up—consistent with the signals we’ve been discussing.

We do have a couple more cold blasts between now and Sunday, but after that, the cold air retreats north once again. In our next report, we’ll be looking ahead closely, as some potentially important changes are beginning to show up for the Christmas to New Year’s week.

How do mountains stay warm?

They put on their snowcaps