Hog prices and pork cutout values remain firm in 2025. Slaughter hog prices (weighted national average) recently peaked at $106.75/cwt in late June—the highest since August 2022—and have ranged from $102 to nearly $105/cwt in July, about 17% ($15/cwt) above last year’s levels. The pork cutout value also peaked at $120.72/cwt in late June, the highest since mid-August 2023. After dipping to $112.16/cwt post-holiday, the cutout rebounded to $115.34/cwt last week—up 15% ($15.16/cwt) from the same week last year, and well above last year’s peak of $105.49/cwt. It feels like we're in a transition point where we could push higher or reverse lower. I think if fat cattle prices hang in there I believe the hog prices will as well.

Today the USDA announced that Australia will ease restrictions on US Beef imports. Which is a positive for our exports however Australian beef is lower priced than ours. In my opinion, it won't translate into significant number of new exports. Boxed beef is down again today which isn't overly surprising because of the time of year. China pledges to have a stronger financial support for certain agricultural markets. These headlines rarely translate into real change—lots of noise, not much action. If they actually start buying more ag products from us, that’s great, but until then, it’s best not to get too distracted by the talk. This was a common talking point today in the media world. I don't have any opinion. I'm ready to see if cash hangs in there this week. I'll leave you with some estimates of tomorrows Cattle on Feed report.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report – July 1, 2025

On Feed July 1:

 Actual: 99.1% of last year

 Average Estimate: 99.1%

 Range: 98.8% – 99.4%

Placed in June:

 Actual: 98.0%

 Average Estimate: 98.0%

 Range: 96.0% – 99.1%

Marketed in June:

 Actual: 96.2%

 Average Estimate: 96.4%

 Range: 95.9% – 96.9%

If you're looking for some coverage reach out to your market advisor to puts floors in if you haven't! Have a great night!

-Fat cattle kill at 117,000 vs 115,000 a week ago and 121,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 4.98 to $367.52 and select down 2.55 to $345.39 for a spread of 22.13 on 164 loads

-CME feeder index for 7/23 came in at $326.18

-LRP’s ending last week settled at $239.47

-Hog kill at 475,000 vs 473,000 a week ago and 480,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported down .91 at $117.24 on 285 loads

-CME lean hog index on 7/22 reported at 109.23

-CME pork cutout index on 7/23 reported at 117.74

-LRP’s ending 7/24 settled at 109.95

The next two 500 mb flow charts show forecast snapshots of the atmospheric flow later this week and one week from now. In both, you’ll notice the signature high-pressure center parked over the central U.S., with energy rotating around it, further validating the ongoing cycle within this year’s LRC.

The anticyclone is forecast to intensify significantly early next week, amplifying the summer heat and suppressing widespread rainfall across much of the central U.S. However, it’s not expected to last. Just a few days later, this dominant high is projected to break down. Why? The answer lies in the recurring LRC pattern. Energy from the Pacific will once again begin tracking across the northern tier of states, ushered in by a weaker but reemerging jet stream. Within the next 10 days, the segment of the pattern responsible for the Kansas City blizzard, the North Dakota derecho, and multiple severe weather risks is due to cycle back through — and it’s right on schedule. The atmosphere may be in its summer phase, but the storm energy embedded in this year’s pattern is still very much active, even though it is in a summer weakened state.

Happy Friday!