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United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent, (NASS, USDA, February, 2026)

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent below February 1, 2025.

Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.68 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 360,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 365,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 455,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 381,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 105,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025.

Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during January, 8 percent below 2025.

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Cattle on Feed 98.2% vs 98.4% average of trade estimates

Placements during January 95.3% vs 96.5% average of trade estimates

Marketings during January 86.9% vs 87.1% average of trade estimates

1 less marketing day in January compared to last year

Putting the USDA's estimates against the pre-report expectation by industry analysts, this report would be considered slightly bullish. Full disclosure, even after factoring in the 1 less marketing day in January, we still placed more cattle than we slaughtered. This would be bearish IF the market cared. But the market hasn't cared about these reports in several months. Right now futures are trying to trade cash, and cash is supported by unprecendented leverage held by feedyards. I don't ever remember a market like this. I don't remember packer margins ever being this negative this long. I don't ever remember feedyards making a concerted effort to force cash higher, especially during a period, that again I can't remember, where packers are trying this hard to stall a cash advance. I don't remember a time where, to this extent, lower slaughter rates were unable to force product prices higher. And I've never seen a period where producers are noticeably nervous about prices going forward, all while bidding aggressively higher on replacement feeders, stockers, and breeding animals.

Like I said, it comes down to leverage. The packers have contracted meat obligations to deliver on, and their cattle suppliers don't seem to care one bit about their margins being deep in the red. I don't know when the leverage flips and turns this market, but this Cattle on Feed report won't be the reason for it. To the contrary, this report probably gives the bulls a bit more ammunition in their belt. The last time we had a placement number above the previous year's corresponding month was the month of March 2025 compared to March 2024. It will be interesting, given the extra days most cattle are being fed and the slower slaughter rate we've seen, how long it takes the packer to regain leverage with these continued lower placements. If that leverage switch flips, I'd want my big cattle cleaned up quick. But with today's steady to maybe a buck higher cash trade, I doubt anyone with cash cattle to sell actually care.

All that being said, whether it's the potential JBS strike or whatever the reason, futures feel awfully tired up here. They've had all week to rally up to cash levels, and they haven't. April fats with a huge discount to cash really concerns me. If we can't get anyone to gamble on April in this cattle market without cash proving it first, how are we going to convince traders to buy the deferred contracts and give us a chance to manage risk on the ones we're placing now. Futures almost feel scared to be at these levels. None of that is a great sign for a long and healthy bull market. I'd keep your eye on the ball going forward. As soon as you can cover your butt at a break-even or profit, I wouldn't think twice.

That's enough from me today. I hope you all have a great weekend and get your manure hauled while the ground is frozen.

-Fat cattle kill at 89,000 vs 86,000 a week ago and 108,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes up 1.53 to $366.70 and select up .95 to $360.74 for a spread of 5.96 on 106 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 2/19 came in at $377.37

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $245.18

-Hog kill at 460,000 vs 446,000 a week ago and 466,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported down .67 at $95.61 on 254 loads

-CME lean hog index on 2/18 reported at 87.59

-CME pork cutout index on 2/19 reported at 95.99

-LRP’s ending 2/20 settled at approximately $87.95

ND to the Great Lakes & south to the southeast USA will see 0.50”-1.25”. The TN valley to OH will see 2”-3”. The WCB will see .25”-1.25” from west to east. This may be a bit overdone. SD to west TX will see trace-0.50”.

New week. New blessings. New opportunities. Let’s get it!