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January 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly, (NASS, USDA, January 30, 2026)

All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2026 totaled 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head on January 1, 2025.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly below the 37.3 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef cows, at 27.6 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.57 million head, were up 2 percent from the previous year.

All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 18.0 million head, 1 percent below the 18.1 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.71 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.90 million head, were down slightly from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.40 million head, were 2 percent below a year earlier.

Steers weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 15.6 million head, down 1 percent from January 1, 2025.

Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2026 totaled 2.01 million head, up slightly from January 1, 2025.

Calves under 500 pounds as of January 1, 2026 totaled 13.3 million head, down slightly from January 1, 2025.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.8 million head on January 1, 2026. The inventory is down 3 percent from the January 1, 2025 total of 14.3 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 82.7 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2026, up slightly from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 24.5 million head, was 1 percent above January 1, 2025.

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Putting it against estimates, you'd call today's numbers bullish. Do I think we're limit up Monday, no I do not. I also don't expect this report to matter in the slightest bit come Monday. None of the numbers were way out of line, so probably no fireworks. It was nice of the USDA to once again revise some of their old crap, but they still have some more correcting to do before they deserve a day off.

Skipping back to what matters, great job everyone. You killed it in the cash this week with trade anywhere from 237-241. You deserve a steak dinner for all your hard work and great success. Next week's cash will be critical in my opinion. Beef is once again struggling a bit, and now thanks to the entire commodity complex dropping hard today, we have our work cut out for us. I still have faith and believe today could've been month end positioning as much as anything. Keep up the good work please, I have some steers to sell in the coming weeks and hate selling in a down market. Fight the Lord's Fight, and Do it for Dan!!

-Fat cattle kill at 93,000 vs 84,000 a week ago and 115,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 2.1 to $365.56 and select up 1.22 to $361.94 for a spread of 3.62 on 95 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 1/29 came in at $370.69

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $234.65

-Hog kill at 486,000 vs 427,000 a week ago and 476,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported up .79 at $94.22 on 304 loads

-CME lean hog index on 1/28 reported at 85.72

-CME pork cutout index on 1/29 reported at 95.33

-LRP’s ending 1/30 settled at approximately $85.79

Trace-0.25” for the Plains & WCB. A chance to see much more after 2/8. Confidence in seeing much more is 35%. 0.25”-1.25” from eastern TX to the southeast USA to IN and OH

Happy February!