Well…😂

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United States Cattle on Feed Down Slightly, (NASS, USDA, March 20, 2026)

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on March 1, 2026. The inventory was slightly below March 1, 2025.

Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head, 4 percent above 2025. Net placements were 1.56 million head. During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 305,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 280,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 445,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 396,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 130,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 55,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.52 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the second lowest for February since the series began in 1996.

Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during February, 17 percent below 2025.

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Cattle on Feed 99.8% vs 99.3% average of trade estimates

Placements during February 103.7% vs 100.2% average of trade estimates

Marketings during February 93.2% vs 92.6% average of trade estimates

Wow. Analysts couldn’t have been more off on this one. Stack the USDA numbers up against pre-report expectations (placements especially), and this one’s – for lack of better terms.. bearish as hell.

Leave it to a government report to come in and pull the rug out from underneath what started out to be a fairly optimistic week. Goes without saying, placements are obviously the biggest issue in this report for obvious reasons. We also placed more than we killed – 89,000 head more to be exact. Granted, marketings were higher than analyst guests, but they are also the second lowest for the month of February since the series began 3 decades ago. Toeing history isn’t always a good thing. That alone triumphs any positive insight I have to offer. It also raises the inevitable concern of getting some of these bigger cattle backed up.

The packers have spent the last two months positioning themselves for exactly this, and $4 boxed beef – they got both this week. Leave it to the packer to cut the kill this drastically and still work their margins back in the black at the same time efficiency levels are down to a minimum.

To make a little light out of the darkness, cattle on feed were still slightly below a year ago, which would normally be considered somewhat bullish… IF the market cared. But why would it when placement levels just handed over a loaded gun?

The Northern Plains totaled only 2,781 head traded on a negotiated basis through Thursday at $234–235, which would be steady to $1 lower than last week and dressed trade was $2 lower at $370. We all know by now packers have likely burned through most of their contract cattle, but after today’s report, it doesn’t exactly encourage competitive bids past 2pm. Maybe cash gets a little help from the green tape today, but that’s probably wishful thinking. Thankful for a weekend in between, but brace for Monday.

And to top it all off, the Fed chair met this week and still has yet to lower interest rates and likely won’t until ole Powell terms out in May. What a joke.

That’s all I’ve got for today. I just spent the last two hours cleaning sludge out of a 21’ stock tank, and I’d do it twice more in this 90-degree NW Kansas heat if it meant I had anything more optimistic to give you.

But if there’s one thing I do know, I’ve never been upset while eating a good piece of meat. I’m no therapist, but I’d recommend it. Have a good night, all!

- Beef:

-Fat cattle kill at 81,000 vs 86,000 a week ago and 100,941 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 0.19 to $400.11 and select up 0.49 to $392.94 for a spread of 7.17 on 84 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 3/19 came in at $362.06

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $234.80

- Pork:

-Hog kill at 467,000 vs 490,000 a week ago and 465,265 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported up 1.15 at $99.20 on 262.45 loads

-CME lean hog index on 3/18 reported at 92.04

-CME pork cutout index on 3/19 reported at 99.33

-LRP’s ending 3/20 settled at approximately $91.94

1”-3” of mostly rain is likely east of the Mississippi river. 1”-2” is likely from MN to LA

through the WCB. Most of the Dakotas to west TX will see 0.25”-1

Happy Monday! ☕🐮