Over the course of the last 5 year rally, there has been a pattern develope in the cash fat cattle trade, which I think I pointed out once. That pattern was that cash would rally for 3 weeks while in the "bastard" month, then go steady for a week. Once we flipped into contract month, cash would soften for several weeks, go steady for a week, and then repeat the process of higher cash into the following bastard month. No grandma, I'm not swearing. The bastard month is a nickname for the months such as November, which falls into the trading month December. Or January which falls under February.

Rewinding several months to September, and that pattern ended with steady to softer cash. We then get to October and cash rallied, mainly because of the extreme negative basis. So the trend changed this fall. Now we've seen a second set of similar circumstances since cash softened in November during the board crash, went steady for a week, and then began to rally last week and continuing this week. If that pattern stays true, this week or next week could be the cash high for the month, and a week of steady money might signal a trend change coming in January. Just some patterns taking place, not the Lord's gospel. So far I've heard of $228, called $4 higher, with many holding out for $230.

So what do you do with this information? Make a sale if you think it is possible this Santa Claus rally comes to an end this week or next week. If you think I sit in the office to much looking for patterns, hold your cattle and hope January is higher. Up to you. Just like I tell my kids, I can tell you the things I'm seeing or have learned in the past, but it's up to you to make the decision in the moment.

Speaking of those little bastards, sorry grandma, they all came home from my wife's parents after Thanksgiving with the crud. It was more than a cold, but they all survived so no big deal. One of them let it slip that they were treated to Chick-f-Lay while they were out there, so of course I took this as a teachable moment. Currently, I have 2 of the 3 convinced that chicken is bad for them and that's why they got sick out there. I'm doing my part to promote beef and pork demand. Maybe a little unconventional or misleading some might say, but every little bit counts.

-Fat cattle kill at 123,000 vs 117,000 a week ago and 125,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 1.68 to $359.36 and select down 3.15 to $344.88 for a spread of 14.48 on 152 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 12/9 came in at $344.03

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $221.06

-Hog kill at 490,000 vs 482,000 a week ago and 483,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported up .83 at $97.27 on 332 loads

-CME lean hog index on 12/8 reported at 81.89

-CME pork cutout index on 12/9 reported at 95.19

-LRP’s ending 12/10 settled at approximately $82.16

We issued the 2025–2026 Winter Forecast Guide last week, and I recorded a follow-up YouTube video just a couple of days ago that I rearranged a bit to emphasize the two main phases of this year’s LRC. You can watch it here: The 2025-2026 Winter Forecast Guide

Let’s not be blind to the signals the LRC is already showing us. It is now December 10th. Denver recorded 0.2 inches on November 29 and 4.3 inches on December 3. Just west of Denver, Golden picked up 0.5 inches and then 7.7 inches from those same events. It was the latest first snow in Golden’s history and the second latest in Denver.

Even more concerning, Colorado ski resorts remain below 50% of average snowpack for this point in the season. In the context of the LRC, this is an important early-season indicator — and we are forecasting only 50% to 80% of this year’s snow pack in the months ahead. 

This slow start is not just a short-term issue. It raises legitimate concerns for the remainder of the winter, water supply, and an elevated fire risk heading into the warm season.

There has been an extraordinary amount of hype over the past month from weather sources that do not understand—or use—the LRC. Some social-media influencer meteorologists went as far as declaring that “the coldest winter ever is beginning.” Statements like that do little to help the credibility of weather prediction, unless these predictions turn out accurate. The LRC points in a different direction.

The reality is that many of these forecasts are driven almost entirely by short-term model output. When models hint at cold, the narrative quickly shifts—without context, pattern recognition, or an understanding of how the atmosphere actually behaves over weeks and months.

The LRC approach is different. Rather than reacting to individual model runs, it focuses on the evolving structure of the atmosphere and how that structure repeats over time. And, once we solidify a few more details of the LRC we will know when the models are right, and when they are wrong, and they are wrong most of the time in the 10-15-day range.

To put things in perspective, take a look at the Arctic air as of today, December 10, shown below. Despite recent cold shots, the core of true Arctic air remains well to the north—another important signal that contrasts sharply with some of the more extreme claims made earlier this season.

It is cold, and some Arctic air has pushed south at times, but it has not persisted the way many expected. The cold shots so far have been brief rather than sustained.

Now look ahead to the outlook one week from today. The Arctic air retreats back to the north, even though it remains very cold there. That distinction matters. When the core of the cold stays bottled up farther north, it limits the duration and severity of cold outbreaks across the U.S.

This is something we will continue to monitor closely, because if the pattern shifts and allows that cold reservoir to tap south more effectively, the impacts could change quickly. For now, however, the signals continue to support a winter dominated by episodes of cold rather than a long-lasting Arctic Blasts.

By next Tuesday, the storm track will have shifted even farther north, and another significant warm-up is on the way. That’s exactly why I titled this report “Are the Big Warm-Ups Winning the Winter Battle?”

Today’s Affirmation:

I am ready to encounter opportunities I never thought were possible.