We're finally getting somewhere with the "delayed data dump" following the government shutdown. Up until today, it wasn't worth sharing data that was 2 months behind. Someone should remind the government that it's a futures market, not a past market and we need the current data. I digress. As of December 2nd, Managed Money continued their liquidation of Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle long positions, getting to a net 82,208 longs in fats, and 13,418 in feeders, very close to our estimates based on Open Interest reports. Hopefully we'll get the more recent 2 weeks worth of data before year, if we're lucky.

Since it is tax season for many of you producers, I feel obligated to remind you how your positions on the board could play a role against your year end. For example, buying a put or call option, depending on your accountant, can be considered an expense this year. Same with LRP's if you're inclined to prepay. On the opposite side, if you're an option seller, with open positions, once again depending on your accountant, those sold puts or calls could be considered income against your 2025 books, even though they're not closed out until 2026. Given our current livestock environment, buying a put, or a pre-paid LRP, could be beneficial in multiple ways. I don't like financial surprises, so if you have questions, reach out.

-Fat cattle kill at 118,000 vs 123,000 a week ago and 122,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down 2.79 to $356.09 and select down 2.67 to $346.43 for a spread of 9.66 on 170 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 12/16 came in at $349.79

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $227.90

-Hog kill at 494,000 vs 490,000 a week ago and 486,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported down .02 at $98.54 on 240 loads

-CME lean hog index on 12/15 reported at 83.30

-CME pork cutout index on 12/16 reported at 98.31

-LRP’s ending 12/17 settled at approximately $83.87

The part of the pattern that produced storm systems earlier this season is about to cycle back through once again. The slide above shows a strong California storm on October 14, followed by a similar system on November 17. Now, a storm with a comparable structure is beginning to show up in the model guidance as we approach Christmas week. We’ll discuss that in just a moment.

While the LRC defines when the pattern returns, the NAO and AO help determine how it expresses itself—modulating storm strength, track, and temperature contrasts.

Let’s first look at a couple of the fringe pieces of the puzzle—the NAO and AO.

• The AO & NAO are important indexes to track as they showcase potential cold and warm periods and how strong storms may be.

• When these indexes dip deep negative, below -3 to -4, there is a much better chance that Arctic air will blast south. This energizes the jet stream and may increase the strength of storm systems.

• When these indexes rise into the positive territory, especially above +3 to +4, Arctic air is most likely to be held far to the north and storm systems end up weaker, and this happened in the first cycle of this year’s LRC.

• We are monitoring this influence on the overall weather pattern closely. The positive shift is affecting the models forecasters use in weather prediction

The NAO and AO help determine how this recurring pattern expresses itself—shaping storm strength, track, and temperature contrasts—without changing the underlying LRC itself. That’s one huge point: Regardless of where the AO, NAO, ENSO, and other corner pieces of the puzzles are in their phases, the LRC continues to cycle on schedule.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has trended positive, as shown on the slide above. This is likely influencing the current look of the forecast models, including the GFS, European, and other guidance. Over the next week, the AO is forecast to trend back toward neutral.

As that transition occurs, the models you’re seeing today will likely evolve—potentially toward a stronger storm entering California, which in turn would support the significant warm-up we are highlighting.

These are some of the deeper, day-to-day insights we’re watching behind the scenes as the pattern unfolds.

Now, let’s take a closer look at how this evolving forecast fits into the holiday week and the official start of winter.

By Thursday, as shown on the slide below, the focus shifts farther south and east. A line of thunderstorms is expected to track across the Tennessee Valley, and some of these storms could become severe, adding another layer of impact as the pattern continues to evolve.

Then, look at what happens a few days later by Christmas Day:

Today’s Affirmation:

I can let go of what I can’t control.