It feels like I haven't written one of these in forever. Between last week's meetings and the wife requiring me to take her south, there's a lot that has happened since last Monday. I can confidently tell you the sand and the water look and feel the same as they did 2 years ago when I took her down there, and I can also tell you that I still hate airports. Long story short, I think I'm good for another 2 years at home.

Now, if you think the high is yet to come, you might as well not read the following thoughts. If you think that the October high was as good as it gets for a few years, you better start paying attention soon. Feb fats are up against Fibonacci's 50% retracement level, and have put this entire rally together on lower open interest, signaling a "dead cat bounce" or "short covering." They were probably lower today just because we've run out of willing buyers. Maybe we see another cash rally to pull us higher this week, but Dec futures might already have that priced in at $227 and change. It will be very interesting to see how we perform at the 62% retracement number, if we get there, considering that $232.75 number is inside that lowest gap we never filled. Long story short again, we have a ton of technical damage to work through before I get in the wildly bullish camp again.

January Feeder Futures have that same look with Fibonacci retracements holding us up and sitting in the gap above us. Some of the cash feeders in the barns are right back to chasing the old highs, but there's a lot of time between now and January expiring. In true "risk manager" mode, I'd like to do my job and ask you to reward the rally we've had by layering in coverage at these levels again. Again, if that was the high, and Trump gets his way, I'd expect lower cattle prices in 2026. $320-$330 feeders still sounds worth protecting in my book.

I promise to throw some hog commentary at you soon, but I don't want to jinx it so we'll leave it alone tonight.

-Fat cattle kill at 115,000 vs 115,000 a week ago and 118,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes down .30 to $360.90 and select up 1.21 to $348.60 for a spread of 12.30 on 112 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 12/5 came in at $343.06

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $221.06

-Hog kill at 494,000 vs 482,000 a week ago and 485,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported down .88 at $95.51 on 333.46 loads

-CME lean hog index on 12/4 reported at 81.81

-CME pork cutout index on 12/5 reported at 94.56

-LRP’s ending 12/8 settled at approximately $81.82

• BRAZIL:

All locations will see 2”-4” of rain with pockets of 4”-6”. The heaviest looks to be Minas Gerais to Bahia.

• ARGENTINA:

1”-3” for the Santa Fe, northern Cordoba & Santiago del Estero regions. 0.10”-1” is likely elsewhere.

Close the last chapter of the year with a smile and reflection.