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Last Week’s Responses— 3/24

DAILY MARKET SUMMARY

Monday, March 30

AUCTION SUMMARY

Ogallala Livestock

6,637 Ogallala, NE

Friday

Feeder Steers - Medium & Large #1 Feeder Heifers - Medium & Large #1
500-600 lbs477.50-519.00400-500 lbs495.00-522.00
600-700 lbs427.50-470.00500-600 lbs440.00-490.50
700-800 lbs372.00-406.00600-700 lbs377.50-431.00
800-900 lbs336.00-370.00700-800 lbs338.50-364.50
900-1000 lbs329.50-340.00800-900 lbs322.50-346.00

Mitchell Livestock

3,951 Mitchell, SD

Friday

Feeder Steers - Medium & Large #1 Feeder Heifers - Medium & Large #1
500-600 lbs460.00-542.50500-600 lbs436.00-484.00
600-700 lbs409.00-454.00600-700 lbs362.50-407.00
700-800 lbs375.00-398.00700-800 lbs331.50-361.00
800-900 lbs345.50-370.00800-900 lbs303.00-332.00
900-1000 lbs314.50-347.00900-1000 lbs302.50-312.50

Farmers and Ranchers Livestock

3,280 Salina, KS

Friday

Feeder Steers - Medium & Large #1 Feeder Heifers - Medium & Large #1
500-600 lbs475.00-540.00400-500 lbs497.00-535.00
600-700 lbs425.00-450.00500-600 lbs417.00-450.00
700-800 lbs365.00-396.00600-700 lbs361.00-405.00
800-900 lbs320.00-356.00700-800 lbs330.00-344.00
900-1000 lbs325.00-341.50800-900 lbs319.00-329.00

CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE LIVESTOCK FUTURES SETTLEMENT

Monday

Live Cattle Change  Feeder Cattle Change
Apr 239.550 1.050 Apr 363.300 1.850
Jun 240.200 1.425 May 361.325 1.500
Aug 237.300 1.250 Aug 359.600 1.800

CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE GRAIN FUTURES SETTLEMENTS

Monday

Corn Change  Soy Beans Change
May 4.5575 0.0625 May 11.5975 0.0050
Jul 4.6750 0.0600 Jul 11.7500 0.0025
Sep 4.7025 0.0625 Aug 11.7100 0.0050

KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE

Monday

  Wheat Change
May 6.2625 0.0650
Jul 6.4075 0.0675
Sep 6.5450 0.0650

ESTIMATED DAILY CATTLE SLAUGHTER

Monday 109,000 Friday
Week Ago (est)105,000 Steer & Heifer: 72,000
Year Ago (act)103,000 Cow & Bull: 20,000
Wk To Date (est)109,000 Saturday
Last Week (est)105,000 Steer & Heifer: 18,000
Last Year (est)103,000Cow & Bull: 1,000

Monday, March 30

5 AREA WEEKLY ACCUMULATED WEIGHTED AVG CATTLE PRICE

As of 10:00 amHead CountAvg WeightAvg Price
Live Steer 14,755 1,599 235.69
Live Heifer 8,107 1,441 235.65
Dressed Steer 6,847 1,018 371.70
Dressed Heifer 2,213 895 371.63

DAILY ESTIMATED CUTOUT VALUES

600-900#ChoiceSelectChoice/Select Spread
Current Cutout Values: 394.10 391.01 3.09
Change from prior day: +1.13 +1.14  

DAILY CATTLE SLAUGHTER

Monday 109,000 Friday
Week Ago (est)105,000 Steer & Heifer: 72,000
Year Ago (act)103,262 Cow & Bull: 20,000
Wk To Date (est)109,000 Saturday
Last Week (est)105,000 Steer & Heifer: 18,000
Last Year (est)103,262 Cow & Bull: 1,000

Monday, March 30

In Case You Missed It!

Protect your yearlings with smart LRP strategies.

Couldn't attend our recent webinar? Here's your chance to watch the full recording.

In just 30 minutes, you’ll learn how Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) can help you protect margins on summer and fall yearlings.

Our experts Dan Gerhold, Samantha Cozza-Wright and Shane Holtorf break down:

✔ Key trends shaping the feeder cattle market
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Whether you're new to LRP or looking to enhance your risk management approach, this session will break down the fundamentals of coverage, compare LRP with traditional put options, and discuss how producers can incorporate trading strategies to strengthen their overall marketing plan.

CattleUSA Insurance Partner Logic Ag Marketing Commentary

On Wednesday and Thursday this week, I plan to paint a picture of our current beef demand and some of the things we don't always look at. But given Friday's action, I feel it's important to postpone that and talk about Managed Money and Open Interest today.

If you look at the MM table above, you can see that "the funds" were adding new Longs/buying Live Cattle up until Tuesday last week. As a whole, they've been very washy in their positions, bouncing back and forth more frequently than we're used to. This would tell me they're very uncertain about the stability of the market at these levels, or they're unsure if it can break the old highs. Regardless, it's a win that they're adding longs again. Fast forward from Tuesday to Friday of last week, we saw a big jump in futures leading to cash cattle trading dollars higher late Friday afternoon. We're not complaining, but what happened? Open interest dropped on Friday's move, on a day the market moved higher. This means shorts(sold positions) were bought back. Whether it was profit taking or hedgers blowing out at a loss, it's not the type of action you want to see on a rally. Combine that with an early Monday rally closing off its highs, and I really start biting my nails.

So MM put new Longs until at least Tuesday last week, and then we started losing shorts to end last week, driving to new highs on the move. What does that mean, if anything? Who knows since they're conflicting in nature. April futures closed today at $239.550 and last week's cash saw highs of $238-$240. As of right now, some believe cash will be higher again this week, and they need that to happen to justify where April futures are trading. Keep the following things in mind as they tend to have an effect.

• Good Friday this week, closing the Future's markets and giving us a 3-day trading weekend and thinner end of week action?

• April Live Cattle Option expiration this Thurdays and First Notice Day coming Monday. Because of this, we really need to see positive basis to avoid losing more long positions.

• April Contracted cattle coming into the mix of kills end of this week and next.

• Tomorrow's Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports potentially effecting Feeder Cattle Futures?

• Front month Oil busting back above $100/barrel today and equities still making new lows of this March move.

Just a reminder to know your numbers and be prepared to protect profit when it presents itself.

-Fat cattle kill at 109,000 vs 105,000 a week ago and 103,000 a year ago

-Choice boxes up 1.13 to $394.10 and select up 1.14 to $391.01 for a spread of 3.09 on 77 loads

-CME feeder index(Feeder LRP Settlement) for 3/27 came in at $365.12

-Fed Cattle LRP’s ending last week settled at $235.35

-Hog kill at 496,000 vs 492,000 a week ago and 461,000 a year ago.

-Afternoon Pork reported up 1.01 at $97.57 on 258 loads

-CME lean hog index on 3/26 reported at 91.18

-CME pork cutout index on 3/27 reported at 96.91

-LRP’s ending 3/30 settled at approximately $90.79

Dan Gerhold

Click here to connect with a CattleUSA Insurance representative

Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Review our full disclaimer at https://www.logicag.com/disclaimer

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